A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
